EXTREME WEATHER OUTLOOK

The big story on the storm map today is next week, when a major surge of heat is expected to build from the Southern Plains eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

Temperatures across that region could climb into the 90s and lower 100s, creating a significant late-season heat event. Current CPC guidance also shows a strong signal for extreme heat across the Central and Southern Plains, with the potential for temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s and very high heat indices in some locations. (Climate Prediction Center)

But there will be a very active boundary along the northern edge of that heat. From the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Appalachians, thunderstorms will repeatedly develop as cooler air battles the heat and humidity to the south.

Some of these storms could become quite nasty, producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, torrential rainfall, and potentially some tornadoes. Given the strength and persistence of the boundary, we also need to watch for overnight convective clusters or MCSs that could develop along the northern edge of the heat and then race southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast. These systems can produce widespread wind damage while many people are sleeping.

So next week could feature a pretty remarkable contrast:

🔥 Southern side: 90s to 100s with oppressive heat
⛈️ Northern side: Repeated severe thunderstorms
🌧️ Along the boundary: Heavy rain and flooding potential
💨 Overnight: Potential MCS/derecho-type wind events
🌪️ Severe threat: Damaging winds and hail, with tornadoes possible

And this won't be a one-day event. It may take much of the week for the pattern to finally break down, with successive waves of thunderstorms moving along the boundary before the cold front finally pushes through and knocks the heat out.

The good news is that by next weekend, the pattern should finally settle down, and we could be looking at a much more comfortable and pleasant weekend across a large part of the East.

This is shaping up to be a classic late-summer battleground pattern—extreme heat to the south, cooler air to the north, and severe thunderstorms firing repeatedly right along the dividing line. (foxweather.com)