EXTREME WEATHER OUTLOOK

Extreme Weather Discussion

Attention is increasingly turning toward next week, when we could be looking at a much more volatile weather pattern across the eastern United States.

A fairly substantial upper-level trough is expected to drop southward through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, eventually settling across the eastern part of the country for much of the week. If that trough develops as currently projected, it could produce several rounds of significant weather.

One of the biggest concerns will be severe thunderstorms. The setup could become favorable for organized thunderstorms from the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic states, with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

The period from roughly Monday through Thursday could be particularly active. As the trough digs into the East, strong winds aloft and increasing instability could provide the ingredients needed for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms.

Flooding is another major concern.

With the trough potentially lingering over the East, it could spawn areas of low pressure along the East Coast. Those coastal systems could draw additional moisture northward from the Atlantic, increasing rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

That could become particularly problematic if the same areas experience repeated thunderstorms before the coastal low develops. Saturated soils combined with additional Atlantic moisture could produce significant rainfall and flash-flooding problems.

So we're potentially looking at a rather complicated setup:

• Monday–Thursday: Increasing severe-weather potential from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

• Severe storms: Damaging winds, hail, and potentially tornadoes.

• Heavy rain: Repeated thunderstorms could produce locally excessive rainfall.

• Coastal low pressure: May develop along the East Coast and pull additional Atlantic moisture northward.

• Flooding: Particularly concerning across portions of the Mid-Atlantic where rainfall could become prolonged.

Obviously, we're still several days away, so the exact placement and intensity of the trough will determine how significant this event becomes. But if the current large-scale pattern verifies, next week could be one of the busier stretches of weather we've seen in quite some time across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.