EXTREME WEATHER OUTLOOK

On today's storm map, the big story is what could develop next week as another strong cold front drops southeastward through the Great Lakes.

The GFS was showing a fairly significant setup yesterday, although it has backed off somewhat with the latest runs. The European model is still maintaining the potential, so I don't want to dismiss this threat just because one model has become less aggressive.

Right now, the potential is there for a significant severe-weather event Tuesday, particularly from the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians, with the threat potentially extending toward the Mid-Atlantic.

The ingredients we'll be watching include the strength and position of the upper-level trough, the amount of instability that develops ahead of the cold front, and how strong the winds aloft become. If those pieces come together, we could see damaging winds, large hail, and potentially tornadoes with organized thunderstorms. Similar Great Lakes-to-Ohio Valley setups have produced organized damaging-wind events when strong midlevel flow and instability overlap. (The Watchers)

Heavy rainfall is another concern. If thunderstorms repeatedly track across the same areas, particularly around the Ohio Valley and Appalachians, we could have a combination of severe weather and flooding. Recent storm patterns have already demonstrated how quickly repeated thunderstorms can create flooding problems across this corridor. (FOX Weather)

So, for now, I'm keeping a close eye on Tuesday.

The models may continue to adjust the strength and timing of this system over the next several days, but the fact that multiple pieces of guidance are maintaining a potentially significant trough and storm system tells me this is not something we should ignore.

The storm map message today: don't focus on the model backing down just yet. The potential remains there, and if the atmosphere comes together the way some guidance is suggesting, Tuesday could become a very busy day from the Ohio Valley through the Appalachians and potentially into the Mid-Atlantic, with both severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall becoming significant concerns.